Welcome to Wider Europe, your weekly dive into the evolving dynamics of the European Union, NATO, and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe.
I’m Rikard Jozwiak, Europe Editor at RFE/RL, and this week we’re zooming in on a critical question: Is the European Union truly ready to become a military superpower?
A Watershed Moment for European Defense
Just two weeks after EU political leaders pledged billions of defense spending at a critical summit, they’re back in Brussels on March 20–21 for some additional high-stakes negotiations.
The topic remains the same—but the sense of urgency has increased: how to establish real European defense sovereignty in the face of growing uncertainty over future American military support, especially to Ukraine.
The foreign ministers of the EU have already gotten a head start. On March 17, they discussed a new budget proposal by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to support Kyiv. Meanwhile, the European Commission will publish a white paper on March 19 that has the potential to set the direction for European defense for generations to come.
ReArm Europe: Ambition Meets Reality
At the heart of such negotiations is the ReArm Europe plan—a far-reaching proposal that would have as much as €800 billion ($872 billion) invested in defense over the next four years. The goal? Build a more integrated, self-financing European defense market.
But as always in Brussels, the devil is in the details
Yes, the plan looks good on paper. But how quickly can this cash be converted into tangible military assets—missiles, tanks, and bullets? More importantly, will any of it get to Ukraine in time?
A Glaring Defense Gap
EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius recently warned the European Parliament that the continent requires a defense deficit of at least €500 billion—and lacks thousands of tanks and armored vehicles. President Ursula von der Leyen also added that EU member states still remain below 2% of GDP spending on defense, while the U.S. targets 5% and NATO targets a new 3.7% level.
Even with more investments, it will take ten years or so for the EU to conduct meaningful military operations independently of the United States, according to the experts. Key capabilities—intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition—are still not weaned off the United States.
Financing the Future: Loans, Bonds, and Budget Reallocation
There are three major ways of funding proposed by the European Commission to render ReArm Europe a reality:
Relaxing defense budget limits – Member states could spend an extra 1.5% of GDP on defense by easing budget limits. But will everyone take advantage of this wiggle room? Unlikely.
EU-guaranteed loan scheme – €150 billion would be in the form of EU-guaranteed loans against unused EU budget funds, accessible to lower-credit-rated states. But highly indebted southern European nations may be hesitant to take on more debt.
Shifting EU cohesion funds – More than €300 billion spent on infrastructure in poorer regions could be redirected voluntarily for defense. But voluntary participation limits the impact.
Germany’s Spending Bazooka
Germany, with new Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is poised to be in the spotlight. His vision for exempting defense expenditure above 1% of GDP from constitutional debt limits could unleash billions of new military spending.
But this has raised alarm across Europe that German firms will get a foul advantage over competitors, potentially leading to calls for joint EU “defense bonds.”
These Eurobonds—unwanted in northern states—might be back in the defense debate should Berlin go aggressively alone.
Military Mobility & Ukraine Integration
The white paper next year will also highlight less glamorous but vital areas like military mobility—simplifying the movement of troops and equipment across EU borders in a crisis. Road, rail, and bridge upgrades will be central to any defense strategy.
Ukraine’s defense industry can be integrated into the EU’s defense market and access its combat-tested military expertise, especially in the use of drones in warfare. The so-called Danish model—purchasing directly from Ukraine and joint ventures—is also gaining traction.
Urgent Aid for Ukraine
These are all long-term schemes—but Ukraine needs help today. Kyiv will need €33 billion in military support alone this year, it estimates. A fresh voluntary EU scheme, championed by Kaja Kallas, aims to mobilize €20–€40 billion in support for Ukraine’s guns, air defense systems, drones, fighter aircraft, and training for troops. Member states have until June 30 to commit funds.
Nevertheless, some proposals—such as paying on a weight-of-economy basis—are already causing controversy, especially in France, which argues that it provides unacknowledged military support in the background.
What’s Next?
As Brussels haggles over defense policy, a potential trade war with the U.S. is building. Washington slapped 25% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum recently, setting the EU to retaliate. If tensions do rise, an all-out transatlantic trade war could put a serious hole in Europe’s economy—just as defense expenditures are increasing.
Final Thoughts: Superpower or Still in Waiting?
The EU’s ambition to become a military superpower is clearer than ever. But plans require more than money – they require political will, unity among member states, and strategic agreement. Whether Brussels can step up to the challenge only time will tell.
But one thing is certain: the fate of European defense is being written today.
